In another context, these bets would trigger an insider-trading investigation, and indeed someone in the Iranian military might well have treated the bets as a form of actionable intelligence. But what is the average American meant to do with this kind of news, observing that big spike in betting activity and guessing that it might well mean someone with inside information is sending a clear signal? One intuitive answer would be: Bet on it yourself. What’s the point of knowing anything, after all, if you don’t put some skin in the game?